May 11, 2026

Buyers are competing for turnkey homes, where pricing, condition, updates, and upgrades create buyer urgency and multiple-offer situations.

Homes that Sell for Top Dollar

In April, 34% of all Orange County closed sales sold above the list price, and another 14% sold at the list price.

An elite professional women’s track athlete can run 400 meters in 49 to 52 seconds. Sydney McLauglin-Levrone ran it in 47.78 seconds, an American record, inches away from a world record. Spectators see her warm up for about 15 minutes in the stadium before running and winning a very fast, short race. Yet, Sydney didn’t just jump on a track and win. She has been preparing for years, training 4 to 5 days per week. Her workouts were intense. She hit the weight room. She used visualizations and positive self-talk techniques. The consistent, calculated preparation is what made Sydney one of the fastest athletes of all time. Her success was planned.

Sellers who sell fast and fetch top dollar don’t simply pound a FOR SALE sign in the yard, pick a price, get plenty of buyer activity, and sell quickly. There is plenty of preparation before these homes are placed on the market. These showcase homes have enhanced their overall appeal by removing any signs of wear and tear. They replace worn flooring, paint inside and out, replace outdated fixtures, install new appliances, repair any deferred maintenance, clean up the landscaping, and enhance the curb appeal. Many of these homes are updated and upgraded. Every detail of the home’s desirability is considered. Finally, these homes are carefully, methodically priced, analyzing all recent pending and closed sales activity. Their success was planned.

Today’s housing market is considerably slower than it was during the heyday of the pandemic. But that does not mean that homes are not flying off the market. Many buyers mistakenly believe that they can get a “deal” on every home without really knowing the facts. In April, 34% (642 of 1,885) of all Orange County homes sold for more than their last asking price, with a median time on the market of 7 days. The median amount paid above the asking price was $29,000.

Another 18% (332 of 1,885) of all homes sold in April were sold at the last list price, with a median time on the market of eight days. And 48% (911 of 1,885) sold below the last list price with a median time on the market of 28 days. The median amount paid below the asking price was $35,000, and it took about a month to secure success.

Buyers look at their favorite real estate app morning, noon, and night, anxiously waiting for anything new to hit the market. When something does, they examine every photo, view the virtual tour, and then look at the price. Showcase homes attract buyers because they are not only turnkey and ready to go, but also priced right. They sell for above the asking price because they attract the interest of several buyers simultaneously. When there is only one home, one seller, and multiple buyers, buyers compete for the home, and it ultimately sells above its asking price in a very short time.

Homes that require work, have deferred maintenance, are in a poor location, or lack updates and upgrades can still attract a buyer, but they must be priced according to their Fair Market Value, taking into account their limitations. These homes are excellent candidates for buyers looking to negotiate, as they typically do not attract multiple offers and sell for less than their asking price.

Showcase sellers know buyers want a turnkey home that doesn’t need any work before moving in. Buyers are sensitive to the condition of a home, the flooring, paint, appliances, cabinets, countertops, light fixtures, custom built-ins, window coverings, landscaping, curb appeal, upgrades, and amenities. Before touring a home, buyers look at every detail. Finally, they look at price. When a home checks all the boxes and is accurately priced, it attracts plenty of activity, multiple offers, and sells for top dollar. They have the “wow” factor, and their success was carefully planned.

ATTENTION BUYERS: Do not set limits on NOT paying at or above a home’s asking price. A revealing 52% of all closed sales last month sold at or above their asking price, and they sold very fast. Homes with all the bells and whistles, priced right, attract plenty of buyer activity. Buyers who are unwilling to compete limit themselves and will not be able to purchase an attractive showcase home.

ATTENTION SELLERS: Preparation before listing a home is essential in maximizing a home’s top dollar. Preparing a home is not a simple process. In the weeks or months leading up to listing a home, addressing its overall appeal, condition, updates, and upgrades, and then meticulously arriving at its asking price, will result in increased buyer activity and a sale at the highest possible price.

Active Listings

The inventory increased by 2% in the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory increased by 101 homes over the past two weeks, up 2%, to 4,307, its smallest rise of the year. The inventory is not climbing as fast because demand is rising at a faster-than-usual pace for this time of year. There are plenty of homes coming on the market, typical for spring, yet many also go pending and are no longer part of the active listing inventory. The recent increase in demand has limited the ability of the inventory to grow as fast. The active inventory grew at its slowest rate for the start of May since 2023.

Last year, the inventory was at 4,468 homes, 4% more than today, with 161 additional homes. There are fewer homes on the market today than last year for the first time since March 2024. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 through 2019) was 6,255, an additional 1,796 homes, or 45% more.

Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move because of their current, underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. This trend has been easing from the lows established in 2023. Through April, 10,584 homes were placed on the market in Orange County, 3,530 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 25% less. In 2025, 10,949 homes entered the market (3% more), compared to 9,102 in 2024 (14% less), and 7,752 in 2023 (27% less). Slightly fewer homes have been coming on the market this year compared to last.

Demand

Demand increased by 6% in the past couple of weeks.

Demand, a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased from 1,584 to 1,678 in the past couple of weeks, up 94 pending sales, or 6%. This is the highest demand reading since May 2024, meaning demand has not quite reached its annual peak, which typically occurs between April and May. This spike in demand is uncharacteristic for this time of year. Despite the news regarding higher mortgage rates due to the Iran conflict, mortgage rates are substantially lower than they were last year at this time. Last year, they eclipsed 7% in April and May. According to Mortgage News Daily, they are at 6.49% today. They have been noticeably lower year over year for months now. Finally, the improved affordability has translated to additional buyer demand. Demand is 9% higher than it was last year. The year-over-year difference began at the end of March and has widened since then.

Last year, demand was 1,546, with 132 fewer pending sales, or 8% lower. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,765 pending sales, 65% more than today, or an additional 1,087.

As the Federal Reserve has indicated, it is essential to watch all economic releases for signs of slowing. These releases can cause mortgage rates to rise or fall, depending on how they compare with market expectations. It is also important to monitor any developments in the Iran conflict and its impact on the oil market, and ultimately inflation, which can also cause mortgage rates to rise or fall. This week includes the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index, two key measures of inflation, followed by Retail Sales on Thursday. Next week marks the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which tracks the strength of the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors.

Expected Market Time

In the past two weeks, the market time has dropped by three days. 

With the supply of available homes rising by 101 homes, up 2%, and demand rising by 94 pending sales, up 6%, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) decreased from 80 to 77 days in the past couple of weeks.

Last year, it was 87 days, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 68 days, quicker than today. The Expected Market Time for condominiums and townhomes decreased from 93 to 88 days in the past two weeks. It was 83 days last year. For detached homes, the Expected Market Time decreased from 72 to 70 days. It was 89 days a year ago. The detached-home market is faster than the attached-home market.

Luxury End

The luxury market improved over the past couple of weeks. 

In the past couple of weeks, the luxury inventory of homes priced above $2.5 million (the top 10% of the Orange County housing market) decreased from 995 to 987 homes, down 8 or 1%. Luxury demand increased by 19 pending sales, up 11%, to 199, its highest reading since February of last year. With supply falling and demand rising, the Expected Market Time for luxury homes priced above $2 million decreased from 166 to 149 days, its strongest reading since February. Like the rest of the market, the luxury market is taking an unexpected turn.

Year over year, the active luxury inventory is down by 191 homes (-16%), and luxury demand is up by 19 pending sales (+11%). Last year’s Expected Market Time was 196 days, slower than today.

In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from 131 to 115 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 161 to 142 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 303 to 281 days. Luxury is at 166 days overall. At this pace, a seller would be looking at becoming a pending sale around October 2026.

Orange County Housing Summary

• INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 101 homes, up 2%, and now stands at 4,307, its smallest rise of the year. Last year, there were 4,468 homes on the market, 161 additional homes, or 4% more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,255, which is 45% higher. From January through April, 25% fewer homes came on the market than the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 3,530 fewer. There were 365 fewer than last year, 1,482 more than in 2024, and 2,832 more than in 2023.
• DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 94 in the past two weeks, up 6%, and now stands at 1,678, its highest level since May 2024. Last year, there were 1,546 pending sales, 8% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,765, which is 65% higher.
• MARKET TIME: With demand rising much faster than the supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 80 to 77 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 87 days, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 68 days, quicker than today.
• LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million decreased from 131 to 115 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 161 to 142 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 303 to 281 days.
• DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Five foreclosures and five short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the total of distressed homes on the active market to 10, down two from 2 weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
• CLOSED SALES: There were 1,851 closed residential resales in March, up 3% compared to March 2025’s 1,801 sales, and up 36% from February 2026. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was 100.0%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were sellers with equity.

Have a great week.

Sincerely,
Steven Thomas
Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences

Copyright 2026—Steven Thomas, Reports On Housing—All Rights Reserved. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without express written permission from the author.